PETALING JAYA: Weak second-quarter earnings reported by Bursa Malaysia-listed companies are not surprising, according to analysts, as the three-month period coincided with disruptions to the economy attributed to the Covid-19 pandemic and the containment measures.
Despite the poor results, Public Investment Bank (PIVB) Research said, the market is likely to have seen the worst, barring a second wave of coronavirus infections, which could lead to targeted shutdowns.
For the second quarter, earnings disappointments were aplenty, although it thought that post-first-quarter earnings reductions were already sufficiently accounted for.
PIVB Research listed sectors most vulnerable to “economic standstills” such as banks, property, real estate investment trusts, airlines and gaming as the standouts.
With that, the research house has revised its growth assumption for 2020 and 2021 to -21.4% and +26.2% from its first-quarter estimate of -12.8% and +15.9%, respectively, due to prevailing weak conditions.
“While adjustments to earnings this current quarter should result in a reduction of our end-2020 FBM KLCI target to 1,430 points, we are maintaining our expectation of a 1,480-point closing this year-end owing to liquidity-driven ‘exuberances’,” it said in a report.
PIVB Research elaborated that the market appears to be still underpinned by expectations at this juncture, such as a V-shaped recovery in earnings and in economic growth.
“The flush liquidity amid interest rates which have been cut to all-time lows, conditions we last saw in 2008/2009, is feeding the hunger for investment returns, hence the market not reacting particularly negatively to supposedly ‘bad’ earnings reports, this quarter and the last (1Q’20).”
In terms of its sector picks, the research house said manufacturing, banks, construction and power (renewables) may garner interest in 2021.
“For stocks, we retain our preference for smaller-capitalised names with strong growth stories, near-term challenges notwithstanding, namely Johore Tin, Magni-Tech Industries, Mega First, Sarawak Plantations, Serba Dinamik, SKP Resources, Chin Hin Group and D&O Green Technologies,” it said.
CGS-CIMB, however, has lowered its end-2020 FBM KLCI target to 1,520 points, from 1,550 points previously, to reflect earnings downgrades made during the results season.
For the second quarter of the year, it has seen companies that posted results above its expectations rise to 25% from 13% in first-quarter 2020, as well as a lower share of underperformers of 36% from 44% in the previous quarter out of 130 companies it actively covers.
The research house revealed that its key takeaways for the results season were the improving earnings revision ratio attributed to higher overachievers in the quarter, the 56% year-on-year decline in corporate earnings due to the movement control order, and interim dividends were mostly below expectation for banks.
CGS-CIMB noted that most of the companies that were loss-making were in the airline, auto, construction, property, media and gaming sectors.
“Following our latest earnings revisions, we now expect the KLCI’s 2020 core net profit to decline by 16% (vs 11% previously), as we adjust for earnings downgrades in the Genting Group, Tenaga, MISC and IHH,” it said.
“We expect corporate earnings to be stronger quarter-on-quarter in 3Q’20F and in 2H’20F, as earnings recover from the lockdown due to pent-up demand, rebuilding of inventory and stimulus measures.”
For its top three picks, the research house has replaced Top Glove with Public Bank and Yinson with MPI, while retaining Tenaga Nasional, to reflect its view that investors are likely to rotate in the later part of the year to cyclical sectors which will benefit from the recovering economy post-Covid-19.
Its top picks also include IJM Corp, KPJ Healthcare, MPI, Pentamaster, Petronas Gas, and Ta Ann.
source
https://www.thesundaily.my/business/weak-q2-corporate-earnings-not-a-surprise-to-analysts-HK3804955