IATA: Global air traffic won't return to pre-Covid level before 2024

PARIS: Global air traffic will not return to levels seen before the coronavirus pandemic until at least 2024, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said.

Uncertainty about the timing of border reopenings is the main factor, IATA's chief economist Brian Pearce told a news conference. "We now are expecting 2019 levels not to be reached until 2024 which is a year later that what we had previously expected," he said.

The outlook depends on how countries manage "to control the virus", he said.

New British restrictions on travel with Spain had "created a lot of uncertainty", Pearce said.

"What we haven't seen is a wide spread of reopening, particularly for long haul, particularly for inter-Atlantic travel," he said.

Any recovery in the second half of the year would be "slower than we hoped" after a weaker-than-forecast rebound in May and June.

Because of rising Covid numbers in some countries, the reopening of international borders would take longer than previously forecast, he said.

For 2020 as a whole, IATA now expects a 63% drop in air traffic, worse than its previous forecast of 55%, Pearce said.

IATA, which groups 290 airlines, projects their income to be amputated by half this year compared to 2019.

Recovery prospects are weakened by the spread of COVID-19 in the United States and developing countries together representing 40% of global air travel, IATA said.

Business travel may also face a sustained slump, threatening the profitability of long-haul airlines and routes as corporate clients rein in spending and make greater use of video-conferences that have become the norm during lockdowns.

"It will remain to be seen whether we see a recovery to pre-crisis business travel patterns," Pearce said. "Our concern is that we won't."

Long-haul carriers may need to rely more heavily on cargo to maintain the viability of some routes because of lower business demand, he said. "For many network airlines, the premium-paying passengers were essentially the ones who drove the profitability." – AFP, Reuters

source https://www.thesundaily.my/business/iata-global-air-traffic-won-t-return-to-pre-covid-level-before-2024-BY3199355